Creeping Recession

Just no hiding from the grim economic news. I expect a very difficult retail environment for ’09 even locally as we’re clearly not immune from national trends even given the proximity to government and educational sectors.  Speaking of Amsterdam specifically I see a bit of good fortune in BeechNut arriving as they are not retail driven; for once, the timing of BeechNut could not be better for our local economy. I can see Route 30 development stalling for a bit as national retailers pull back dramatically on expansion assuming they’re not heading to Chapter 11.

The one to watch will be AMD– I see it as a coin toss now.

From the NY State Department of Labor:

“The severity of the current recession in New York State is underscored by the labor market statistics released today. In just the last three months, the state has lost more than 100,000 private sector jobs, including 49,300 in December 2008. This is the steepest one-month drop since October 2001 in the aftermath of the World Trade Center attacks. The number of unemployed in the state is at its highest level since October 1993; while New York State reached its highest unemployment rate since June 1994. Since the beginning of the national recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed New Yorkers has increased by more than 50 percent,” said Peter A. Neenan, Ph.D., director of the Division of Research and Statistics.

Note: When comparing different months, seasonally adjusted data provide the most valid comparison, for example, November 2008 versus December 2008. Non-seasonally adjusted data are valuable in year-to-year comparisons of the same month, for example, December 2007 versus December 2008.

Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted)
December 2008 November 2008 December 2007
New York State 7.0 6.0 4.6
United States 7.2 6.8 4.9
New York City 7.4 6.3 5.1
NYS, excluding NYC 6.6 5.9 4.3

Industries with Job Gains:
Educational & Health Services           +9,300
Other Services           +1,800
Government           +800

Industries with Job Losses:
Trade, Transportation & Utilities           -34,600
Professional & Business Services           -32,100
Manufacturing           -20,300
Financial Activities           -19,800
Construction           -16,300
Information           -5,600
Leisure & Hospitality           -4,400
Natural Resources & Mining           -200

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